Increased Canadian LNG exports have the potential to reduce global emissions by displacing higher-intensity sources of supply, says a report from the Public Policy Forum, an independent, non-partisan and non-profit think tank.
The Energy Future Forum report, in partnership with the Canadian Chamber Future of Business Centre, opens with this:
“Drawing on analysis by Navius Research of likely Canadian oil and gas exports, as well as displacement scenarios by destination market by 2035, the central finding is nuanced
but clear: With maintaining the persistent downward trend in our fuels sector’s carbon intensity via strong methane controls and other measures and with targeted market
strategy, increased Canadian exports have the potential to reduce global emissions by displacing higher-intensity sources of supply.
“That’s why we need to capitalize on our environmental advantages by leveraging our existing export capacity and unlocking the capital flow to new major projects in the
sector by enhancing the economic competitiveness and viability of those projects.”
The report continues:
“Canadian LNG — especially from British Columbia — has a world-leading low life-cycle carbon intensity because:
1. Liquefaction is increasingly powered by clean hydropower;
2. Upstream methane leakage is significantly less than that of competitors due to
relatively new resources and operations benefiting from high productivity and
latest technologies, while also functioning under tight Measurement, Monitoring,
Reporting and Verification (MMRV) protocols;
3. High-quality natural gas plays in British Columbia that benefit from low formation
CO 2 ; and
4. Transportation benefits over competing U.S. supplies, thanks to shorter shipping
distances to key
And the report adds: “LNG Canada’s liquefaction facility is designed around ~0.15 tonnes of CO₂e (carbon dioxide equivalent) per tonne of LNG versus a global average
of ~0.35 tonnes of CO₂e. Newer projects in B.C. are expected to emit even less.
“At the point of use, gas in efficient combined-cycle turbines emits roughly 50–60 percent less per megawatt hour (MWh) than coal, so the largest climate gains occur
where LNG displaces coal generation.
“A significant portion of global LNG exports is used for electricity generation in importing countries. Focusing the scope of our analysis to that portion, Canadian LNG offers a
remarkable emission reduction potential over competing LNG as well.
“Delivered to China, for example, B.C. LNG is estimated at ~74 kilotonnes (kt) of CO₂e per terawatt hour (TWh) of generated electricity versus ~124 kt/TWh for U.S. LNG —
about 40 percent less — implying benefits even when Canadian volumes replace other LNG rather than coal.”
The report continues: “If Canadian LNG capacity reaches 47.6 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) by 2035 — that is, if all LNG projects currently in the pipeline become
operational and export to the largest Asian markets — the net climate impact, according to Navius’s “most likely scenario,” would be 40–70 Mt CO 2 e/yr in net reductions to global
emissions.
“To put that into perspective, this equates to 6–10% of Canada’s national emissions, and the higher end of the range is 10 Mt CO 2 e/yr larger than British Columbia’s annual
emissions (60 Mt CO 2 e/yr). This figure takes into consideration the announced climate policies and credible projections for the future composition of the electricity grids in
destination markets of interest.”
A co-author of the report is Mark Cameron, a fellow at the Public Policy Forum, senior associate with BlueSky Strategy Group, former director of policy and research in the
prime minister’s office, and a former deputy minister with the government of Alberta.
He was interviewed by Stewart Muir of Resource Works in Muir’s Power Struggle series, and told Muir that our LNG can reduce global emissions for two reasons:
“One is that in some of those (overseas) markets, you’re displacing coal. Coal obviously is about twice the emissions in generating electricity as LNG. So to the extent that
you’re displacing coal, you’re getting a clear emissions reduction.
“Now, some people assume that you automatically replace coal with LNG. That’s not necessarily true. That depends on the dynamics in different markets, but there is
definitely going to be some replacement or displacement of coal.
“The other question is what other sources of LNG are you displacing? So we looked particularly at U.S. LNG, and Canadian LNG, because it has cooler temperatures,
shorter shipping times to Asia, more electric drive in its production, is actually about 35 percent lower in emissions than LNG that would be shipped from, say, the U.S. Gulf
Coast.”
• Watch the video of the Power Struggle interview at https://youtu.be/n9XA9KRnvcQ and read the full text at https://ow.ly/lxFe50XZcYA
On LNG, the Public Policy Forum report also says: “A tonne of CO₂ avoided in Asia by using Canadian LNG has the same benefit as a tonne avoided in Canada.
“By pursuing agreements to formally credit Canada for emissions reductions enabled by its exports, Canada can bolster the case for continued responsible production while
keeping within the spirit of global climate commitments.
And in an appendix it adds: “Although natural gas is much cleaner than coal at the point of combustion, the full life-cycle emissions of LNG can be further improved through
technology and best practices. Canada has been proactive in this area, implementing measures to ensure that exported LNG is produced and delivered with a minimal GHG
footprint.”
• Read our earlier Alliance blog: ‘LNG really is cleaner than coal’: https://ow.ly/OKTj50XZe3c
(Posted here 23 January 2026)
